Average global temperatures will rise by nearly four degrees by the end of the century – more than double the target set out in the Paris Climate Agreement.
That’s the finding of the latest Climate Progress Dashboard by asset management group Schroders, which forecasts global warming levels, based on the progress that governments, companies and industry sectors are making.
The fund firm’s previous report for the third quarter of 2018 suggested that the world’s temperature was on course to increase by four degrees by the end of the century, but the latest calculation shows a negligible improvement to 3.9 degrees – woefully short of the two degree target of the Paris Agreement.
Rising carbon prices in Europe and North America were deemed to be responsible for the marginal improvement, but further, non-political measures will be key to improving the long-term outlook, according to Schroders’ head of sustainable research, Andrew Howard.
“We are becoming increasingly doubtful that a binding global consensus will be reached quickly enough to deliver the change needed to meet the commitments made in Paris three years ago,” he said.
“In our view, it is increasingly clear that the key to climate action on the scale and speed needed to avoid the worst physical effects of climate damage lies away from the global political agenda which continues to attract most headlines.”
Howard said that there are reasons to be positive, however, with advances in technology offering new hope.
“The biggest changes have happened away from international politics,” he said.
“For instance, clean technologies are becoming increasingly attractive from an economic perspective and rising carbon prices in Europe and the US create a growing financial penalty to emissions.”